Round: Second Round (Round of 64)
Date: Wednesday, January 21, 2026
Surface: Hard (Melbourne Park) (Action Network)
🔎 Match Overview
American Frances Tiafoe enters this second‑round clash as the heavy favorite against Argentina’s Francisco Comesana, marking their first official head‑to‑head meeting.
Tiafoe, a former top‑10 player and one of the tour’s most dynamic hard‑court competitors, is expected to assert his power game and aggressive baseline play against a less experienced Comesana on the Grand Slam stage.
Comesana, ranked outside the top 60, earned his first‑round win to reach this stage and has shown flashes of competitiveness at the majors, but he hasn’t yet consistently beaten higher‑ranked opponents on hard courts.
📊 Odds & Betting Markets
Here’s a snapshot of early odds from multiple bookmakers:
Moneyline (Match Winner)
Frances Tiafoe: ~1.36–1.40 (≈ -260 to -286 American)
Francisco Comesana: ~3.14–3.17 (+214 to +220 American)
Tiafoe −3.5 games around -145 to -155
Comesana +3.5 games around +100 to -105
Totals (Games)
Around 38.5–39.5 games depending on the book
These odds reflect Tiafoe as the strong favorite, with the market pricing him for a straight‑sets win or at least a relatively comfortable victory.
📌 Key Factors
✔ Tiafoe’s Advantages
Greater ATP Tour and Grand Slam experience.
Strong hard‑court game built on aggressive baseline hitting and powerful serve.
First‑round win in straight sets at Melbourne Park indicates solid form early in the tournament.
⚠ Comesana’s Upside
Capable of extending rallies and grinding baseline exchanges.
Enjoys momentum from his first‑round victory and growing confidence.
May thrive in longer matches if he keeps points competitive.
✔ Market & Trend Signals
Betting trends suggest underdogs in this matchup historically struggle early on, and Tiafoe’s favored status often leads to spread covers.
📈 Prediction
Most predictive models and expert picks lean heavily toward Frances Tiafoe to win, often in straight sets or at least with a clear margin:
Main Prediction: Frances Tiafoe to win — likely in straight sets or covering the −3.5 spread.
Alternate Scenario: Without outright dominance, Tiafoe still has the edge to close in four sets if Comesana finds rhythm in extended rallies.
Upset Edge: While Comesana’s chances are lower, he could take a set if Tiafoe’s serve falters or rallies extend, pushing totals above expectations.
🧠 Final Pick & Tips
Best Pick: Tiafoe to win
Value Bet: Tiafoe −3.5 games (if odds stay attractive)
Live Watch Tip: If Comesana can hold his serve early and stretch the first set, the match could momentarily tighten before Tiafoe pulls away.
